The timing was unusual–voting in crucial presidential elections had just gone into an unscheduled court-ordered third day after long delays at the polls left thousands unable to vote. Polling stations opened five hours late on Monday, and closed at night amid tense scenes as police fired tear gas to disperse those still waiting to cast their ballots.
A judge refused to extend the voting for a fourth day, and the winner may be declared on Wednesday. Ncube’s arrest demonstrated that the opposition already is desperate, and on the run. For its leaders, losing at the polls may be the least of their worries.
A victory announcement by Mugabe seems a foregone conclusion. Some foreign diplomats–notably a top Libyan official–already have begun flying into the capital of Harare to be in place to congratulate him. In spite of how unpopular Mugabe has become during his 22 years in power, he may have brought in more votes than his challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai.
Mugabe’s election officials have ensured that the voting process was a nightmare for residents of areas that have supported Tsvangirai in the past. Massive delays have effectively disenfranchised the great majority of voters in these areas around Harare. At the same time, polling officials have ensured a high voter turnout in the rural areas, which traditionally support Mugabe.
And the police are helping. According to the MDC, many of its party workers who were assigned to observe voting in rural areas are detained, leaving the way open for the government side to coerce voters or stuff ballot boxes. Even outsiders aren’t safe: police briefly detained four U.S. diplomats yesterday, in what a U.S. Embassy spokesman called “a clear violation of diplomatic norms.” Tsvangirai told a press conference that the government had rigged the vote, and he left open the question of whether he will recognize the result. “If there are thousands of people not able to vote, this is a stillborn election,” he said.
The challenger himself could soon find himself behind bars. Tsvangirai clearly is worried. “They may want to arrest me and at worst kill me, but they will never destroy the spirit of the people to reclaim their power,” he told the press conference. Government security agents have placed him under perpetual watch, NEWSWEEK has learned. Police recently questioned Tsvangirai about video surveillance tapes recorded at a Montreal consultancy, in which he appears to go along with a plot to kill Mugabe. Officials said he may be charged with treason, a capital offense. Four more of the party’s top officials, and more than a dozen of its parliamentarians, may face charges ranging from treason to inciting violence.
The wild card is how violently the public will react to a Mugabe victory claim. Tsvangirai yesterday urged his followers to show restraint, at least until after the result is announced. But everybody expects trouble this week. At a police roadblock just outside Harare, an officer flatly predicted, “There is going to be a riot.” Some shops in downtown Harare announced they’d be closed Tuesday in anticipation of trouble. Mugabe’s police and military have cracked down hard on earlier demonstrations. But public resentment of Mugabe has never been higher. The next few days will test whether Zimbabweans have the stomach for a “people power” revolution.
